QUOTE(AC Tony @ Jun 11 2007, 09:59 PM)

When I find the guy that invented that calculation I'm going to whoop him good. Chances are I won't be able to catch him after a certain distance b/c his formula was off.
I've heard double your time + 10 minutes. They were smoking something. I've run a 1:50 1/2 but a 4:00 marathon that 'bout killed me. 1:51 1/2 and 4:12 marathon. 1:57 half and TBA.
Those formulas have me running at about 3:30-3:40 marathon. Maybe I'm doing some speed drills in my sleep and I don't know it.
If you're trying hard on long runs each saturday and feel like you're pushing...ADD MORE TIME. If the SAT runs feel easy and you've got plenty left in the tank...Don't add as much time.
It's great to see people interested in using their half-marathon performance to estimate marathon potential. For many of us, this is the best information we have so far in figuring what we've got in us at marathon distance.
The fundamental problem with this computation is that for many of us in the program, our conditioning for marathon distance is quickly evolving -- typically for the better -- and we are new to marathon training. As a result, it can be difficult to extrapolate our half-marathon performances in early June to a full marathon in October. We are "works-in-progress" -- I guess that's a good way of thinking of it.
Many of the estimation formulas make the fundamental assumption that when you are estimating your performance at a new, longer distance, you have trained as well for the longer run as you have for the shorter run. Keep in mind that the USA FIT program is designed to get novice runners/walkers up to marathon distance with minimum chance of injury, so as a result it leaves you with somewhat less mileage than other programs. (I hope that doesnt' sound discouraging to you, but the truth is that the USA FIT program has an excellent track record for getting our athletes to the start line compared to other, more ambitious programs that can leave you with injuries.)
As a result, I think that unless you are doing more mileage than the USA FIT program, you should add extra minutes to any of these estimation formulas.
Keep in mind that we still have the 15 mile, 30K and 21 mile benchmarks ahead of us. It's good to use these iteratively to try a more suitable pacing strategy and see how it feels. Don't let any one day's performance depress you or inflate your ego too much -- as you've seen by now, there is some normal variability based on your level of rest/recovery, nutrition, stress level and so on.
The key thing is to use each of these benchmarks as a metric and refine your work in progress. Use them to motivate you to do your weekly mileage. Then on Marathon Day in October, you'll be dialed-in on what your best pace should be.